A Mathematical Model for Trend Forecasts


A mathematical model is developed which provides a basis for the extrapolation of technological performance figures-of-merit, and the resulting equation which describes the rate of technological progress has the form of a logistic curve. The model predictions are compared with historical development trends which have occurred for the development of transportation capability, for the otto cycle engine, and for the diesel engine. Methods are developed for estimating uncertainty levels associated with technological figure-of-merit projections, and the relationships between technological progress and market substitution are discussed.

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