Using Perceptions and Data about the Future to Improve the Simulation of Complex Systems


Many of the techniques used to forecast the future are basically extrapolative, that is, they assume that the future will be an extension of the past. This assumption will eventually be incorrect as new forces cause future changes. This paper describes methods for incorporating data and perceptions about unprecedented forces and events in otherwise extrapolative procedures. Two specific techniques incorporating these methods, trend impact analysis and probabilistic system dynamics, are described.

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